Like other European economies, the Belgian economy is currently facing challenges. Belgium has many energy-intensive companies that are suffering from higher energy prices and rising wage costs. The crucial pharmaceutical sector (accounting for 20% of total production) fell sharply after the 'artificially' high growth in 2021 due to the enormous production of Covid-19 vaccines. Production in several other industrial sectors also lost ground. The metal sector, for example, whose production was 15% lower in 2023.
GDP growth in Belgium reflects a downward trend. In 2022, growth was +3%, after strong growth of 6.9% in 2021 (the year of economic recovery after the Corona crisis). Allianz Trade expects GDP to grow by +0.8% in 2024, after 1.4% in 2023. This makes us slightly more pessimistic than the Federal Planning Bureau, which predicts +1.3% for 2024.
Government finances are a concern
Belgium continues to struggle with high government debt and structural budget deficits. Allianz Trade expects the deficit to remain around 5.0% and the national debt to reach 107% of GDP, also in 2024-2025.
Recovery only expected in 2025
Private consumption and investments remain reasonably stable. Falling inflation and a recovery in consumer confidence should support the private sector in 2024/2025. That is not enough to get the economy going in 2024. The trade slowdown will continue due to weak global demand. The labour market also remains very tight. The low unemployment rate is expected to remain around 5.6%. The Belgian vacancy rate is almost the highest in Europe, 4.7% at the end of 2023.
According to Allianz Trade, recovery is only to be expected in 2025. Until then, the Eurozone - and therefore Belgium as well - will continue to face economic headwinds. One positive forecast is that the growth in the number of bankruptcies in 2024 will be limited (+6%). Bankruptcies are expected to decrease markedly in 2025 (-5%).