Mexico Country Risk Report

Under the same sun

BB2

MEDIUM RISK for enterprise

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

  • Economic risk

  • Business environment risk

  • Political risk

  • Commercial risk

  • Financing risk

Updated in January 2025.

Swipe to view more

Form of state Federal Republic
Head of government Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (President)
Next elections 2030, General Election

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strenghts
  • Second-largest market in Latin America with 14 FTAs, highly integrated with global value chains
  • Solid fiscal profile, ample reserves and increasing focus on renewable energy and industrialization
  • Stable political framework, enabling legislative continuity and nearshoring opportunities
Weaknesses
  • Dependence on the US, which buys the equivalent of 30% of Mexican GDP, leaves it vulnerable to shifts in trade and industrial policy
  • Fiscal challenges linked to oil revenues (30% of government income) and contingent liabilities
  • Structural inefficiencies in competitiveness and elevated security risks

Economic Overview

useful description of image if informative and not decoration only.

Resilient domestic demand, cautious easing

Mexico’s economy has demonstrated robust resilience, averaging +4% GDP growth since 2021. However, growth slowed to +2% in 2024, influenced by subdued US demand and monetary policy lag effects. Remittances – equivalent to 3.4% of GDP in 2024 – and nearshoring investments underpinned domestic activity. Fundamentals, including consumer confidence, credit availability and wage bill dynamics, provided some stability, but weaker industrial production signaled a deceleration by late 2024.

The central bank Banxico has commenced monetary easing amid decelerating inflation, which is projected to remain above 4% in 2025 and stabilize at similar levels in 2026. The central bank’s dovish stance, paired with synchrony to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, suggests Mexico’s policy rate could decline to 8.5% by end-2025 and 7.5% by 2026. Despite a mildly depreciating peso, the wide interest rate differential with the US will provide currency support, balancing import costs of capital goods and commodities.

Mexico’s nearshoring success has been instrumental in mitigating external risks. As the top US trading partner in 2023-2024, Mexico’s manufacturing and services sectors have benefited from foreign investment inflows and labor market competitiveness. However, rigidities in energy and mining, coupled with insufficient vertical integration in industries like electronics and semiconductors, limit growth potential. Policymakers must address these structural gaps to sustain momentum amid global geoeconomic fracturing.
useful description of image if informative and not decoration only.

A pragmatic pivot amid uncertainty

The administration under Claudia Sheinbaum offers a mix of pragmatism and continued state interventionism. Sheinbaum’s fiscal policies aim to stabilize public finances after pre-election spending increased the deficit from 3.4% of GDP in 2023 to 4.7% in 2024. Fiscal revenues remain weak (17% of GDP), prompting expanded tax incentives for local and foreign companies, especially in technology and R&D, effective through 2030.

Nearshoring presents a key medium-term growth driver. Mexico’s status as the US’s top trading partner and the unveiling of the “Plan México” strategy – targeting 15% national content growth in automotive and electronic exports by 2030 – highlight its industrial ambitions. However, investment bottlenecks in energy and manufacturing sectors, combined with slower US demand under the Trump administration, temper these prospects. Achieving a USD100bn annual FDI target by 2030 would require reversing declines in new capital investment, which fell to historic lows of 5.8% of total FDI in 2024. The government's focus on rail and the helpful narrative around creating an alternative to the capacity-constrained Panama Canal may also sustain private investment. The government seeks to grow energy generation capacity by 16% and expand renewable energy integration. Streamlined permitting processes and public-private partnerships are vital to achieving these targets, offering potential relief to Mexico’s energy-intensive industries.

Mexico’s current account dynamics remain stable, buoyed by remittances and reserves. Nevertheless, risks persist around the 2026 USMCA renewal, where protracted negotiations or a US withdrawal could sharply impact trade and investment flows. A disruption in these agreements would have far-reaching implications for sectors dependent on open trade, including automotive, electronics and agriculture, with the latter plagued by consecutive periods of drought.

 

useful description of image if informative and not decoration only.

Political challenges on the horizon

Mexico’s political landscape under President Sheinbaum combines strong congressional backing and a less populist approach than her predecessor. Her pragmatic tilt faces resistance from Morena hardliners, which may dilute reform ambitions. State-led policies and protectionism in sectors like energy, alongside judicial inefficiencies and contract risks, remain barriers to an optimal business environment. The government’s emphasis on renewable energy and expanded natural gas storage reflects a commitment to modernizing infrastructure but underscores regulatory unpredictability for private investors.

Security challenges persist as cartel activity and elevated violence weigh on perceptions of safety. Violence related to the 2024 elections led to an increase in the country's homicide rate, breaking the slowdown cycle that had been going on for four consecutive years. Risks remain elevated in specific regions.

Diplomatic ties with the US remain pivotal, especially following Trump’s return to office in 2025. The interplay of trade disputes, tariff threats and broader geopolitical dynamics poses external risks. Yet, Mexico’s integration with global value chains, aided by its location and competitive costs, remains an anchor for economic stability.

International relations could further strain Mexico’s business environment. Diplomatic tensions stemming from differences in energy policies or trade disputes may require strategic negotiation to protect Mexico’s interests. Meanwhile, sporadic social unrest and long-standing structural issues in income distribution challenge broader economic inclusion. However, Mexico’s deep ties with the US, the potential of the "Plan México" and an emerging focus on industrialization remain compelling long-term strengths.

Trade Structure by destination/origin 

(% of total, 2023)

Trade Structure by product  

(% of total, annual 2023)

Contacts

Luca Moneta
Senior Economist for Emerging Markets
luca.moneta@allianz-trade.com