Economic Insights

US housing market: The first collateral victim of the Fed

Sep 22, 2022

US housing market: The first victim of the Fed

Real property prices are set to decline by -15% in the next 12 months, pushing the US economy into a recession.

The container shipping industry is benefiting from record-high freight rates

Sep 20, 2022

Shipping: liners swimming in money but supply chains sinking

After almost doubling its revenues in 2021, the global container shipping sector is heading for another record year as freight rates show no sign of slowing down.

Economic outlook energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

Sep 15, 2022

Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality.

The cost of semiconductor shortages on the European automotive sector

Sep 13, 2022

Missing chips cost EUR100bn to the European auto sector

The automotive industry has been the number one casualty of the global semiconductor crunch, which led to a shortfall of about 18mn vehicles around the world.

Italy will hold snap elections on September 25.

Sep 09, 2022

Italy’s elections: snapping back?

In Italy, a right-wing coalition is leading the polls and likely to secure the parliamentary majority in the snap elections on 25 September.

Sep 07, 2022

Double trouble? Inflation means less cash and more debt for companies

In the US and Eurozone, cash buffers are waning as working capital requirements and interest expenses rise but sectors now face differentiated risks.

Sep 01, 2022

Averting Gasmageddon and securing a just transition

The number of households in energy poverty in the EU28 has increased by more than +50% until June 2022 but worse is still to come.

Green infrastructure investment is essential in the US and Eurozone.

Aug 30, 2022

Green infrastructure investment: The public sector cannot do it alone

Current public investment plans alone will not be sufficient to close the estimated green investment gap.

Jul 28, 2022

How to ease inflation? Non-tariff barriers to trade in the spotlight

We find that reducing non-tariff measures to trade to below 50% could knock at least -2pp off inflation in the US and -4.5pp in the EU.