Economic Insights

Apr 30, 2020

Eurozone: Black hole economics

The Covid-19 crisis has hit the Eurozone economy like a meteorite.

Apr 24, 2020

Retail in Germany: A very slow exit from lockdown

The five-week closure of non-essential stores could have cost German retailers as much as EUR26bn in turnover.

Apr 23, 2020

Reopening the world: Beware of false starts

Managing the reproduction rate of the virus effectively will mean most economies will function at 70% to 80% of their potential for two-three quarters.

Apr 22, 2020

Europe should unlock excess savings from Covid-19 response

In turbulent times, households become more risk-averse and may shy away from consuming or investing.

Apr 17, 2020

China: In search of lost demand

We now expect the Chinese economy to fully resume only in June.

Apr 17, 2020

Fed bazooka: A long shot

For the time being, the U.S. Treasury is merely accumulating a war chest.

Apr 16, 2020

Exiting the lockdowns: a tale of four stories

Epidemiological data suggest that few countries are already in a position to start deconfining.

Apr 09, 2020

Oil: The floods

We expect significant volatility around our central Brent crude price forecast of USD 41/bbl as an unprecedented inventory build battles with a hope-driven news flow.

Apr 09, 2020

Covid-19 to increase U.S. delinquency rate by 6.5% and insolvencies by 25% in 2020

Covid-19 is likely to cause the largest shock on the U.S. economy since 1947.