Economic Insights

Feb 21, 2023

The “five Ds” of structurally higher inflation

Five structural factors will determine the course of inflation over the longer term: decarbonization, demographics, digitalization, deglobalization and debt.

Feb 17, 2023

The silver lining for global trade

For inventory management and supply chains, lessons have been learnt from the Covid-19 and post-Covid shortages.

Feb 14, 2023

Rates, not roses: The long goodbye to zeronomics and its implications for the private and public sector in the Eurozone

2022 marked the end of the era of negative interest rates. But the turnaround has not yet reached all parts of the economy.

Feb 09, 2023

Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe ahead of the curve?

Central banks in the CEE-4 were the first to halt their interest rate hiking cycles and, barring any new shocks, we expect some of them to also be ahead of the curve when it comes to the pivot.

Feb 07, 2023

A Faustian bargain: Europe’s answers to the US IRA

The Inflation Reduction Act is America’s first serious attempt to tackle the climate crisis and reach its own emission-reduction goals. But it entails a string of protectionist measures that might hurt Europe’s green industry.

Feb 02, 2023

Falling off a savings cliff?

Americans to fall off the pandemic savings cliff after the summer break, while Europeans hoard even more

Jan 31, 2023

Do we need more inflation to get more corporate investment?

Up until 2019, global disinflation pushed down corporate investment, but the return of inflation since 2020 has failed to reverse the trend.

Jan 27, 2023

Consumption: What’s (wealth) got to do with it?

Household consumption is starting to lose steam in Europe's largest economies and the US.

Jan 24, 2023

No, the energy shock in Europe does not mean de-industrialization

The large energy-price shock still lies ahead for European corporates but it won't be a game-changer for price competitiveness against the US.