Economic Insights

Sep 03, 2020

France, Germany, Italy: Good fiscal stimulus, bad trade deficits?

Out of Europe’s major economies, France could experience the largest leakage from its fiscal stimulus.

Jul 30, 2020

Impact underwriting: sustainable insurance as an opportunity for society and business

Due to its role as risk manager, risk carrier and major investor, the insurance industry is in a unique position to promote economic, social and environmental sustainability.

Jul 29, 2020

Close to 150 large companies went bust in Q2 2020

The cumulative turnover of insolvent major companies also surged to EUR106.9bn (+155% q/q and +138% y/y).

Jul 27, 2020

Covid-19 to increase firms’ liquidity needs to a record USD8tn as payment delays and inventories surge

The prolonged supply-chain disruption likely due to future targeted lockdowns and companies’ precautionary stockpiling will push inventories up in H2 2020.

Jul 22, 2020

Bruised but not beaten, Europe’s textile industry is a perfect candidate for a greener and digital recovery

An unprecedented disruption in trade, manufacturing and retail activities, followed by a major economic crisis, will send the turnover of the European textile and apparel industry down by -19% in 2020.

Jul 16, 2020

Calm before the storm: Covid-19 and the business insolvency time bomb

The Covid-19 shock will trigger a worldwide wave of business insolvencies

Jul 16, 2020

European banks: Could EUR300bn of additional NPLs crunch the recovery in Europe?

Unprecedented policy support may not be enough to shield European banks from the real economy’s woes.

Jul 15, 2020

Covid-19: Contagion risks also apply to markets

Increased tail co-movements between asset classes indicate the presence of a common risk factor.

Jul 09, 2020

Coping with Covid-19 in differing ways

The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.