Economic Insights

Sep 22, 2020

Eurodollar: Lost in translation?

We find that the USD could depreciate by as much as 5% (~1.25) against the euro in the next 12 months.

Sep 18, 2020

German "Wumms" vs. French "relance": Who does it better?

France and Germany have deeply diverging approaches to boost the recovery after Covid-19.

Sep 18, 2020

The big compression: the erosion of duration risk

We estimate that central banks' Quantitative Easing policies have compressed the global term premium by -130bps.

Sep 17, 2020

Average inflation targeting: The U.S. Fed buys two years of respite

At its meeting on 16 September, the last before the election, the U.S. Federal Reserve confirmed our expectations that it will keep rates at 0% into 2023.

Sep 11, 2020

Back to school: when the tech bubble hisses

As if markets wanted to remind everyone the risks of interpreting stock market movements, major U.S. equity indices had a hard day on 03 September.

Sep 10, 2020

QE in emerging markets: Playing with fire?

Debt sustainability and inflation are the biggest risks ahead, especially for Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Turkey and Hungary.

Sep 09, 2020

ECB: talking the talk, before walking the walk in December

The spreads have been closed but the ECB’s job is nowhere near done yet.

Sep 03, 2020

European consumers still firmly in the woods

The consumer recovery will look quite detached from the trend in retail trade.

Sep 03, 2020

Allianz Pulse 2020 - The political attitudes of the French, Germans and Italians: grim expectations

It was to be expected that the assessment of the current economic situation would be miserable, but the outlook for the future is just as bleak.