Executive Summary
A golden formula for pharma growth. The pharmaceutical industry is cooking up a storm, with weight-loss drugs serving as the main course. Diabetes and obesity have become the star ingredients driving the sector’s expansion, sidelining traditional staples like oncology and immunology. Sales of GLP-1 blockbusters Semaglutide and Tirzepatide have risen from a modest EUR4.5bn in 2021 to a sumptuous EUR21.2bn in 2023. This year’s sales of GLP-1 drugs are on a rapid boil at +92% y/y. Particularly, Ozempic is expected to be the second best-selling drug globally (EUR17bn of revenues) in 2024. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the chefs behind these hits, are forecasted to see their revenue simmering at +24% and +33% growth this year, well above the industry’s average of +7% y/y and feeding the expectations that the GLP-1 market could balloon to EUR92bn by 2030. With investor appetites whetted, Novo Nordisk now reigns as the largest European company by market cap, while Eli Lilly has positioned itself as a hefty rival to the US stock market’s Magnificent 7.
A recipe for trouble. Despite the sizzle, there’s a risk of the dish burning. Regulatory scrutiny over the safety of weight-loss drugs and the encroachment of generic and copycat products could sour the feast. Some consumers have reported side effects such as nausea and diarrhea, raising questions about long-term palatability. Meanwhile, the competitive kitchen is heating up: generic alternatives may debut as patents expire, particularly for Semaglutide in China in 2026. Copycat versions are already nibbling at market shares, threatening the established players' pricing and profitability. To stay on the menu, price reductions may become essential.
Slimming down health expenditures. Weight-loss drugs might just serve as a miracle meal for the global health system, with a potential EUR3.3trn in cost savings. Obesity, the overstuffed problem affecting 884m adults worldwide (16% of the global adult population in 2022, up from 7% in 1990), comes with hefty side orders such as diabetes and heart disease. These health issues rack up EUR698bn annually in direct costs, or 7.7% of global health expenditures, not to mention lost productivity. Widespread use of GLP-1 medications could act as a dietary intervention, saving EUR2.0trn in health costs over the next decade if obesity rates plateau, or EUR3.3trn if they shrink back to 2010 levels. In the US, where the burden is heavier, these savings could reach EUR1trn and EUR1.8trn, respectively.
Food Industry on a forced diet. Weight-loss drugs are putting the food industry on a calorie count, with nearly 15mn expected users by 2030 likely to suppress cravings for high-calorie and processed foods. This shift in appetite could slim down the US food market by USD40bn by 2035, with the snack and confectionery aisles feeling the biggest pinch. To stay competitive, food manufacturers will need to whip up smaller portions, healthier recipes, and even explore "natural GLP-1 boosters" for those unable or unwilling to take the pharmaceutical route.
Denmark’s Michelin star dependency. The Danish economy is savoring the success of its pharmaceutical industry, particularly Novo Nordisk, which has contributed to a sixfold increase in real gross value added (GVA) since 2005. Labor productivity in the sector has tripled, leaving other industries behind with a mere +20% rise. Novo Nordisk’s contribution to Denmark’s real GDP growth soared to 90% in 2022 and remained robust at 50% in 2023. However, putting all the eggs in one basket comes with risks: any downturn in Novo Nordisk’s fortunes could leave Denmark’s economy hungry. Rising drug exports are also seasoning currency appreciation, potentially eroding the competitiveness of other sectors.
Insurers' plate gets lighter. The insurance industry could be a big beneficiary, enjoying smaller claims and healthier underwriting margins. Obesity often piles on health-related claims, from chronic conditions to long-term care. As GLP-1 drugs reduce obesity rates, insurers could see fewer payouts. However, the full flavor of this impact depends on access to these medications, their long-term effectiveness, and whether populations embrace healthier habits. For now, the outlook for insurers remains cautiously optimistic.