The UK bucks both global and US trends, where insolvencies continue to rise. By the end of 2024, UK business insolvencies began to show signs of a downward trend reversal. This slight decrease comes after three consecutive years of strong rises, driven by challenges such as Brexit-related issues, Covid-19, strong monetary tightening, sticky inflation, and weak economic momentum.
Looking ahead, headline inflation is expected to ease towards the end of 2025, aided by a loosening labour market and government spending. These factors will contribute to declining insolvencies. However, the UK's growth momentum is unlikely to recover significantly before 2026. Businesses will continue to face challenges, including costs, wages, and tariff threats, keeping insolvency levels high despite the decline. A mild decrease of 3% is anticipated in 2025, reducing cases to 25,900, followed by a larger relief in 2026 with a 7% drop to 24,000 cases.