The UK witnessed a promising shift in business insolvencies, marking the first year-on-year decrease in three years.

Allianz Trade's latest Global Insolvency Report reveals that the UK registered 26,708 insolvency cases in 2024, a 5% reduction from the previous year. This decline follows significant rises that brought insolvencies to a 10-year record high in 2023.

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Summary

  • UK business insolvencies are showing a promising decline, contrasting global trends of rising insolvencies.
  • Sector-specific trends reveal significant improvements in construction, trade, hospitality, and manufacturing.
  • Global insolvency rates are expected to rise due to high interest rates and the looming threat of a trade war.
     

The UK bucks both global and US trends, where insolvencies continue to rise. By the end of 2024, UK business insolvencies began to show signs of a downward trend reversal. This slight decrease comes after three consecutive years of strong rises, driven by challenges such as Brexit-related issues, Covid-19, strong monetary tightening, sticky inflation, and weak economic momentum.

Looking ahead, headline inflation is expected to ease towards the end of 2025, aided by a loosening labour market and government spending. These factors will contribute to declining insolvencies. However, the UK's growth momentum is unlikely to recover significantly before 2026. Businesses will continue to face challenges, including costs, wages, and tariff threats, keeping insolvency levels high despite the decline. A mild decrease of 3% is anticipated in 2025, reducing cases to 25,900, followed by a larger relief in 2026 with a 7% drop to 24,000 cases.


Interestingly, most sectors are experiencing this faster-than-expected trend reversal. Notably, construction, trade, hospitality, and manufacturing sectors are seeing declines in insolvency rates. However, exceptions remain in utilities, information and communication, finance and insurance, and administrative services.

In contrast, global business insolvencies are expected to rise by 6% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, following a 10% increase in 2024. This trend is driven by the risk of delayed easing of interest rates, prolonged uncertainty, and a soft rebound in demand. Relatively high interest rates and the looming threat of a trade war could further elevate global insolvency rates over the next two years.
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